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China’s Q1–Q3 2025 Economic Update: Key Takeaways for Foreign Founders

Foreign founders eyeing China’s market can glean practical insights from the National Development and Reform Commission’s latest briefing on economic trends, policy priorities, and opportunities in new quality productive forces.

China’s Q1–Q3 2025 Economic Update: Key Takeaways for Foreign Founders

On October 20, 2025, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a press conference to discuss current economic hotspots. For foreign founders planning to register a company or operate in China, the briefing offers valuable context on the business environment, policy direction, and emerging opportunities. Below is a summary of the key points, framed as practical guidance.

Economic Performance: Stable, Innovative, Resilient

Despite global geopolitical tensions and natural disasters, China’s GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. The NDRC characterized the economy as “stable, innovative, and resilient.”

• Stable: Macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound, with steady employment and prices, improving development efficiency, and better market expectations.
• Innovative: New growth drivers are accelerating. Key breakthroughs include core technologies in integrated circuits (with mature process capacity ranking first globally), AI open-source models surpassing 10 billion global downloads, humanoid robots accounting for over 90% of global shipments, $130 billion in outbound licensing deals for innovative drugs (nearly matching last year’s total), and new energy vehicle penetration reaching 53.6%.
• Resilient: Enhanced food, energy, and supply chain security through increased investment in “two major” construction projects and reserve systems.

Policy Mix: Existing and Incremental Measures

The NDRC is coordinating existing and new policies to sustain growth and set the stage for the 15th Five-Year Plan. For foreign founders, these measures signal continued support for key sectors and private investment.

Existing policies being strengthened:

• Accelerating major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan and “Six Networks” implementation plans.
• Inviting private capital into nuclear, hydro, and water conservancy projects.
• Optimizing policies for key industries and computing infrastructure.
• Upgrading old reservoirs and building high-standard grain warehouses.

New incremental policies:

• Lowering interest rates on pledged supplementary lending (PSL).
• Increasing re-lending quotas.
• Subsidizing residential mortgage interest.
• Financial support for the services sector.

Domestic Demand: The Main Engine

Domestic demand contributed 74.8% to economic growth in the first three quarters. Retail sales of goods and services grew by 2.6% year-on-year, while investment in intellectual property products rose by 9.3%. The NDRC is drafting an implementation plan for expanding domestic demand (2026–2030) and will push for its early release.

Key measures include:

• Boosting consumption by integrating livelihood improvements with consumption promotion, increasing public service spending, and expanding consumer-friendly policies.
• Upgrading goods consumption, especially new energy vehicles and smart products.
• Expanding service supply for elderly care, childcare, cultural performances, tourism, and sports events.
• Removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption.

Investing in people and infrastructure:

• Coordinating 109 major projects from the 15th Five-Year Plan with “Six Networks” construction.
• Using ultra-long-term special government bonds and new policy financial tools to support social welfare, technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and security.
• Improving long-term mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major projects.
• Advancing urban renewal.

Building a unified national market:

• Issuing regulations for a unified national market, standardizing property rights protection, market access, and other basic rules.
• Reforming local government investment and financing models and income distribution systems.

Private Investment: Opportunities for Foreign Founders

The NDRC recently promoted 88 investment projects to private enterprises in two batches, with plans to introduce 31.1 billion yuan of private capital. The Private Economy Development Bureau will continue project promotion and implement a “policy + project + scenario” approach to break down hidden barriers, strengthen factor guarantees, and open application scenarios.

New Quality Productive Forces: Balanced Development

The Central Committee and State Council have released opinions on developing new quality productive forces. The NDRC emphasizes “tailoring measures to local conditions” in three aspects:

• Scientific planning: Regions must thoroughly assess their foundation before planning key industries. National and provincial special plans for future industries and emerging pillar industries will be aligned.
• Comparative advantages: Projects should be rigorously evaluated to avoid blind investment. For example, regarding overheating in some hydrogen energy segments, the NDRC is drafting plans to guide rational layout based on national strategy, technological maturity, and resource conditions.
• Standardized support policies: Localities must use policies in accordance with unified national market rules and avoid “involutionary” competition or vicious investment attraction.

Application Scenarios: A Door for Innovation

The NDRC and relevant departments have launched the first batch of 136 landmark major application scenario projects. These projects aim to accelerate the maturation and application of new technologies, products, and business forms, providing templates for wider use. For instance, smart mining scenarios will activate resources from over 2,800 mines, offering testing grounds for cloud computing, industrial IoT, intelligent sensing, and autonomous driving.

Practical Takeaways for Foreign Founders

• Leverage innovation incentives: Sectors like AI, new energy vehicles, and smart manufacturing are prioritized, with potential access to policy support and application scenarios.
• Participate in private investment projects: The NDRC is actively inviting private capital, including foreign-invested enterprises, into major projects. Keep an eye on project promotions.
• Align with domestic demand policies: Consumer-focused sectors such as elderly care, childcare, tourism, and sports are set to benefit from expanded service supply and consumption upgrades.
• Navigate local regulations carefully: When planning investments, ensure compliance with unified national market rules and avoid restricted areas like “involutionary” competition.

This summary is based on information published by the relevant Chinese government website and is general information, not legal or tax advice.

Call to action: Foreign founders can contact ChinaMNC on WhatsApp / WeChat at +86 153 1898 8535 for help registering and operating a company in China.